Key political risks to watch in India
(Reuters) - India's coalition government has shown some signs of shaking off the paralysis it has suffered for months, but political wrangling will limit its thrust for reforms during the parliament session that begins on Aug 1.
Corruption charges and high inflation continue to dog Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government, while mid-July's bomb blasts in Mumbai killed 18 people, and raised questions about how India's security services failed to prevent the attacks.
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Following is a summary of key political risks in India:
PARLIAMENT AND REFORMS
The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has vowed to continue taking on the government on issues of corruption and high prices, which could lead to frequent suspensions pf parliament, seriously disrupting lawmaking.
Few expect the government's proposals to introduce a nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST), and to amend land and mining laws to fast-track industrial projects, will be approved by parliament in the current five-week sitting.
While there is no major immediate threat to India's pace of economic growth, which is expected to be around 8 percent in the year to March 2012, the wait for structural reforms is preventing more rapid expansion.
What to watch:
-- Parliamentary sessions.
-- Opposition statements and actions on reform bills, especially GST, which needs bipartisan support to be passed.
LAND ACQUISITION DISPUTES
Protests by farmers against land acquisition are re-emerging as a factor that could disrupt plans to industrialise and urbanise India rapidly.
A court has overturned the acquisition of several hundred hectares of land from farmers outside New Delhi, hitting plans to build tens of thousands of apartments for India's rapidly growing middle classes.
Protests continue against land acquisition for South Korean firm POSCO's proposed $12 billion steel mill, while land given to Tata Motors for a car plant has been taken away to be returned to farmers.
The government has promised a new law that will take the edge off protests by giving farmers market prices or better for their land, but there is no guarantee it will be passed by parliament during its August sitting.
What to watch:
-- Whether the land acquisition bill is passed by parliament, and its final form.
-- Further agitations against the POSCO plant and the government's response.
-- Court decisions. A court will decide on Aug. 17 whether to strike down another batch of land purchases for apartment-apartments, and has given until then for real estate firms, the government and farmers to reach a settlement.
CORRUPTION, PROTEST, AND PARALYSIS
A raft of high-profile corruption scandals in Singh's second term have sharpened public anger against his government. As he struggles to deal with accusations, the government's drive for reforms has taken a backseat.
Anna Hazare, a popular Gandhian social activist, has vowed to embark on a hunger strike from Aug. 16 to protest against corruption, which could be a lightning rod for fresh anti-government protests.
Hazare's fast in April had been widely popular amongst a public fed up with graft and had forced the government to draft a new anti-corruption bill. But Hazare slammed the proposed law as being toothless and said he would push for a tougher law.
The risk is that as the government scrambles to deal with protests, its attention could further be diverted from nurturing the economy and stamping down inflation.
What to watch:
-- Hazare's planed August fast.
-- The passage of the anti-corruption bill.
RISING INFLATION, SLOWING GROWTH
India is still unable to get a grip on high prices and the eleven rate hikes since March 2010 have only dragged on growth. Spending remains high, while tax revenue growth projection are clouded by weaker economic growth.
A long period of high prices will raise discontent and with it the probability that the government will take costly measures to combat them, as well as maintain its controls on fuel prices.
The central bank, one of the world's most hawkish, is willing to sacrifice some short-term growth to cool prices, and the government is resigned to further rate hikes.
Wholesale price inflation , the main gauge of prices in India, stood at 9.55 percent in June, above the central bank's comfort level of around 5 percent, and may hit double digits after fuel price hikes in end-June.
Many investors have fled the Mumbai stock market. With losses of 10.7 percent, it is one of the world's worst performing major markets so far this year.
Kejriwal seeks support for Hazare's stir
In a statement issued here, Kejriwal said it was more than evident that the government and all the political parties were unwilling to enact a strong law against corruption because if they did so, many of them would face imprisonment.
"None of the large scams like the Adarsh, Commonwealth Games, Reddy brothers scam, fodder scam, health mission scam of UP, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha scam, Cash-For-Vote are covered in the government's Lokpal bill draft. What use is such a Lokpal bill? It is weak and ineffective. It has a very narrow jurisdiction and no corruption faced by a common man is covered under it," he said.
"Anna's fast from August 16 is our last hope. We cannot afford to fail this time. For if we fail, we may never get another chance. It's now or never", Kejriwal said.
A number of people across the country are planning various protest activities. "From August 1 to 9, people across the country will form small teams and undertake short and long 'padyatras'. They will talk to people on their way, hold meetings, distribute pamphlets and show the Jan Lokpal film. From August 9, mass burning/tearing of copies of the government's draft of the Lokpal bill, as a mark of non-violent protest, will be held. Anna is expected to start it from either Delhi or Mumbai. During August 9 to 15, 'prabhat pheris' will be held in mornings, where people will sing patriotic songs and educate others about corruption and the Jan Lokpal bill. In the evening, there will be candle light and 'mashal' marches," Kejriwal said.
He has urged people to switch off their lights from 8 pm to 9 pm on August 15 as a mark of support for the anti-corruption movement.
"The government says it will crush Anna's fast the way it crushed Baba Ramdev's movement. We are ready for that. We will offer ourselves for arrest if the government decides to arrest us. We are ready to face their batons and bullets. But we will not move from there. We will not retaliate. It will be a completely non-violent movement," he said. Kejriwal also urged people to take a week off from their work from August 16 and take to the streets and raise slogans against corruption. "Government can impose section 144 at the Jantar Mantar. But will it impose curfew in the whole country? If the whole country takes to the streets, we can force the government to enact a strong Jan Lokpal bill," he added.
Activists of India against corruption take out march
Beginning from BHU main gate, the march passed through a number of areas like Assi, Madanpura, Gadaulia, Lahurabir and caNtonment before culminating at Lanka. Supporting the draft of the bill, as proposed by the Civil Society, the activists demanded withdrawal of the bill.
They supported the decision of Anna Hazare to sit on indefinite strike from August 16.
The Lokpal Bill approved by the Union cabinet keeps the key posts of PM, MPs, MLAs and other authorities out of its ambit. It evoked objections from the Civil Society which is pushing for a powerful bill to curb corruption in the country.
What is Jan Lokpal bill?
Citizens' Ombudsman Bill or Jan Lokpal Vidheyak (in Hindi) is a proposed anti-corruption law designed to effectively nail out corruption, redress complaints and protect whistleblowers. According to designed bill made by some members of 'India Against Corruption (IAC)', a movement against corruption in the government?s bodies, "Jan Lokpal Bill" would work as an independent powerful institution like Election Commission of India and Supreme Court that would prevent corruption in government machinery, redress corruption grievances within a year and penalise the guilty no matter what he/she/they are without the interfering of the government.
According to the proposed Jan Lokpal Bill, the Jan Lokpal (Citizens' Ombudsman) would be an anti-corruption institution on Central level that would control the corruption in the central government machineries and redress the complaints of central government's offices, departments and institutions. Similar anti-corruption institutions "Lokayukta" would be set up in the states.
The Lokpal and Lokayukta would investigate corruption cases and complete the process within a year while the trial would complete in the next one year, means the whole process would complete in maximum two years in order to deterring the corruption on mass scale.
The first Jan Lokpal bill was introduced in the parliament in 1969, 42 years ago in the 4th Lok Sabha, which was passed but it failed in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Parliament. Since then the bill were introduced in the Parliament nine times ? 1971, 1977, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2005 and 2008, but every times it was failed to pass out.
The version of proposed Jan Lokpal Bill drafted by IAC is version 2.2 while the government's drafted Lokpal bill 2010?s version is 2.3, according to government?s website.
The Lokpal Bill version 2.2 was drafted by Justice Santosh Hegde (former Supreme Court Judge and present Lokayukta of Karnataka), Shanti Bhushan, Former Minister of Law and Justice, Prashant Bhushan (Supreme Court Lawyer) and Arvind Kejriwal (RTI activist).
There are several differences in both versions claimed by IAC movement members.
Here are the Salient features of Jan Lokpal bill version 2.2:
1. An institution called LOKPAL at the centre and LOKAYUKTA in each state will be set up.
2. A complete independent powerful institutions like Supreme Court and Election Commission; No minister or bureaucrat will be able to influence their investigations.
3. Members will be appointed by judges, Indian Administrative Service officers with a clean record, private citizens and constitutional authorities through a transparent and participatory process.
4. A selection committee will invite short listed candidates for interviews, video recordings of which will thereafter be made public.
5. Lokpal and Lokayukta will publish a list of cases dealt with, brief details of each, their outcome and any action taken or proposed on their website every months. Moreover, the lists of all cases received, dealt and pending during the previous month will also be published.
6. Investigations of each case must be completed in one year. The trials for that case would be concluded in the following year so that the corrupt politician, officer or judge is sent to jail within two years.
7. Losses caused to the government by a corrupt individual will be recovered at the time of conviction.
8. Lokpal will have the authority to penalise the concerned person responsible for delay in work, carelessness and other reasons that hurt any citizen's work. The institution (Lokpal and Lokayukta) will slap financial penalties that will be given as compensation to the complainant.
9. Complaints against any officer of Lokpal will be investigated and completed within a month and, if found to be substantive, will result in the officer being dismissed within two months.
10. The existing anti-corruption agencies (CVC, departmental vigilance and the anti-corruption branch of the CBI) will be merged into Lokpal. Lokpal will have complete powers and machinery to independently investigate and prosecute any officer, judge or politician.
11. Whistleblowers who alert the agency to potential corruption cases will also be provided with protection by it.
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